Could the fourth quarter become a challenge for the nation's biggest cable operator?
On Thursday,
Tom Eagan of
Collins Stewart released new projections that suggest bigger basic video subscriber losses and
smaller phone customer additions for
Comcast in the fourth quarter. In his note, the analyst said he expects the sluggish subscriber trends due to higher voluntary and involuntary churn as well as lower gross adds for the three-month period.
"With its
subscriber base dispersed both geographically and demographically, increases in bad debt and housing foreclosures have both contributed to involuntary service disruption," Eagan said. "Also, despite an increase in HD choices, Comcast's fewer HD channels contribute to subscribers volunteering to
switch to satellite. Additionally, we expect wireless substitution to impact fourth quarter phone gross adds."
Eagan said he expects basic video subscriber net losses for the fourth quarter to total 125,000, up from a previous estimate of 90,000. Comcast lost 147,000 basic subscribers in the
third quarter, topping Eagan's 85,000 basic subscriber loss projection for the period.
"The company conceded that increased competition has impacted its gross adds, most notably the impact that the expanded
AT&T U-verse footprint build-out is having
on its basic video additions," Eagan said.
Eagan said he expects phone net customer additions for the fourth quarter to total 399,000, down from a previous estimate of 569,000.