Are the cords that tie consumers to pay TV services fraying?  Or not?  As the first of the fourth quarter reports roll in, my e•mail box has grown elephantine with such questions. 

So I've spent a lot of time in the last few days digging through data, analyst pronouncements, actual reports and the like.  And the straightforward answer to the big cord-cutting or not-cutting question is (drum roll):

I don't know.  

What's more, I'd bet a new Apple TV that, even when all the numbers are in, we'll still be scratching our heads.

So what do we have so far?  

Aside from some feel good pronouncements from selected analysts, what we have is:

On the plus (ie no cord cutting) side:  Verizon FiOS has reported video subscribers up by 182,000 for 4Q10 while AT&T U-verse reported a net video gain of 246,000.  DIRECTV has not reported yet but last month CEO Mike White told analysts that's he's looking to a 4Q gain of 60,000 which would certainly bolster the plus side.  

On the down side (so far) we have Time Warner Cable which, despite a stellar financial performance, came out on the down side of Wall Street's basic video expectations to reveal a loss of -141,000.

If you take just the results reported so far (discounting Mr. White until he unveils the actual numbers), we stand at a +287,000 in basic video subs so far.  Which is certainly cheering.

Except for yesterday's report from Netflix which told Wall Street and all known media outlets that it now boasts of 20,100,000 million subscribers.  Which compared to currently known numbers for other top players, puts it at No. 2 in the MVPD universe.  And if Netflix achieves its projections of 1Q11 subscribers totaling 21.9M to 22.8M it could well pass the Comcastic Xfinity service to take first place in total subscribers.  Which leaves us with a universe that (so far anyway) looks like at least some Trojans have slipped through the gate.•

4Q So Far: More Numbers

To recap some of the key financial news from yesterday:  Netflix took the air out of just about every other media player's sails yesterday as it reported a 4Q profit of $47M, up 52% over Wall Street consensus.  The company also announced it now has 20M subscribers ... more than any other US distribution platform except, of course, Comcast.  (See related story for more.)  --- Time Warner Cable reported more solid results for 4Q10 and the full year, notes Bernstein Research analyst Craig Moffett, who comes out high on the company's financial performance.   TWC boosted its income by 32¢ to $1.92/share, capex fell -17% y/y to $782M and revenues edged up to $4.8B (+1% v. consensus). --- Meanwhile, media investment firm MC Alcamo & Co. notes that valuations for local broadcast properties are down as pureplay broadcasters are valued at only 8.7 times multiple v. a 10.7 multiple y/y. --- LinkedIn filed its S-1 reporting revenue of $161M for the 1st 9 months ended 09/30/10 (doubled y/y); $10M profit, up from $3.4M y/y; 90M registed users up 63% and 65M unique visitors during the Q3.•

Etc: Hulu Flare Ups; BSY Results; A Nod to Charter

Strategies: More flare ups over at Hulu as the partners quarrel about the business model.  "Free" is the problem, of course, as News Corp., Disney and others chafe at offering their programming for nothing.  Word is that a "cable online" model is under discussion.  (Shades of ivi TV?) --- Verizon has signed a deal to acquire cloud company Terremark Worldwide for a total equity value of $1.4 billion.  The move will "decisively reshape the rapidly evolving global business technology solutions market," says VZ.

People: Jonathan Friedland, Disney's No. 2 PR guy, is going to Netflix taking the job of VP of global corporate communications. 

Around the World:  BSkyB announced its fiscal 2Q results with a total of nearly 10.1 million customers and adjusted operating profits up 26% to £520M ($=M).  The UK service added 140,000 net new customers in the quarter, down year over year from 172,000. ---  Ericsson will enable and manage Singapore's MediaCorp's new OTT service for customers with interactive, on-demand TV services and content available on multiple platforms. ---

More OTT:  While blowing the socks off analysts' 4Q10 projections (see related stories), Netflix added to MVPD heartburn by noting that the new Apple TV is already more popular than the iPad with Netflix viewers.  In addition, the company unveiled "an extensive Facebook integration" in the works suggesting an even more personalized service for subscribers.  As for those traditional MVPDs, Netflix gave the nod the Charter as the best-performing broadband in the US. 

Tech:  Canoe Ventures CEO David Verklin says that seven nets will be offering the service to 20+M cable households in about three months.•