Satellite Set Top Boxes: Fading Out?

Watch for satellite set-top box shipments to slow steadily over the next few years as changing subscriber and technology trends continue to drag on manufacturers.

That's the word from In-Stat principal analyst Michelle Abraham who has just released her latest report on satellite STBs.  Across the past year, she notes, both North America and Western European countries have seen satellite STB shipments slow by around 8%.  Part of that can be attributed to market saturation and increased competition from the cable and telco TV sectors. 

"Set-top box shipments are typically aligned with gross new subscriber additions," Abraham told The Morning BRIDGE, "and (operators) have not added gross new subscribers at quite the same level as in years previously." 

But perhaps even more important, Abraham notes, are changing technologies as operators like DIRECTV move into "whole home" solutions, eliminating the second or third STBs that might have previously gone to a home.  That, plus a move toward more IP STBs, will accelerate traditional shipment slowing in the years ahead.  For more information on the In-Stat study, go here.•

Charlie Ergen's Game

We've commented on Charlie Ergen's spectrum-buying spree before ....  With his bid for the bankrupt DBSD earlier this week, it's massive.  Indeed, if Ergen gets control of both DBSD and TerreStar, which is also in his sights, he'll have a spectrum pile nearly matching what Sprint and T-Mobile currently control, notes BTIG analyst Walter Piecyk.

Of course, much of that spectrum is supposed to be used for satellite services.  But as we've already seen via LightSquared (which currently has a major stake in TerreStar), the FCC can be persuaded to waive those rules.  (Wireless is Chrmn Genachowski's game and he's determined to find more space for it, somewhere, somehow.)

So what's Ergen gonna do with all his spectrum (which, don't forget, could also include a bid for Hughes)?  Depends, of course, on what the FCC will, or won't, allow.  Also depends on how fast mobile broadband spreads and how great its needs become.  (Very great, if you believe Cisco estimates in a note below.)  Plus it depends on how well satellite services fare in the near future (a mixed bag as noted elsewhere in this issue) and whether Ergen has some bright ideas for re-directing DISH.  But as anyone who has watched Charlie Ergen for any length of time can tell you:  He's really good at the spectral real estate game.  And he's really, really good at making money from it.  

So keep your eyes on the money.  Or, for Piecyk's far more detailed suggestions, go here.  ( And don't forget to register.)•

Etc: TWX Ends Strong; Super Bowl Reprieve; Friends of ivi.tv

Analyze This:  Time Warner beat the Street with 4Q results showing adjusted EPS from continued operations at $0.67, revenues up 8.3% year over year to $7.81B and a boosted stock repurchase program.  Noted Collins Stewart's Tom Eagan, "Revenue was driven largely by better than expected Cable Network revenue, as sub and adv revenue within the segment increased 8% and 14%, respectively and higher Film revenue resulting from higher TV licensing fees and a strong film slate."  --- Cisco says global mobile data traffic nearly tripled last year via a host of new devices.  Looking ahead, the company's Visual Networking Index sees global mobile traffic increasing 26x between 2010 to 2015 to reach 6.3 exabytes/month. --- News Corp reported late yesterday $735M in cable operating income up 22% while TV and broadcast net were both up, too.

Retrans & Renewals:  It's a Super Bowl reprieve for DIRECTV customers in areas serviced by Northwest Broadcasting's FOX affiliates.  The new deadline for the two to make a retrans deal has been set for four weeks from now. --- Time Warner Cable and Sinclair reached a long-term deal.

Battlegrounds:  ivi.tv is getting a boost from Public Knowledge, Electronic Frontier Foundation, Media Access Project and Open Technology Initiative who filed an amicus brief supporting ivi.tv's right to stream broadcast content.  Said the motion filed with the U.S. District Court in New York’s Southern District, ivi.tv meets the Copyright Act's definition of a cable system.  Ergo those approximately 65 channel/$5/month services in Settle, NY, LA and Chicago ... and soon Philadelphia ... are legal.

Strategic Moves: Silicon Alley Insider has a fun article on "The AOL Way" (AKA edicts from CEO Tim Armstrong) here. 

Programming:   ESPN continues its quest to boost Euro football in the US by firming up rights to the 2012 and 2016 Euro Championships. The sports giant has US broadcast and internet rights in all languages and plans to televise every game in both series. --- Retirement Living has a deal for carriage with NCTC members. --- DIRECTV has added DISHA India to its international line-up.

OTT:  In-Stat is warning that the base of OTT devices is growing faster than either content or demand.  Note the researchers, web-enabled TV shipments are growing at a 94%/year clip while only 45% of broadband households prefer to get some digital entertainment from online video services. Then, of course, there's the question of just how much (and what quality) content is available via the new devices. --- On the other side of the OTT coin, MRG Research says the global base of IPTV subs will grow from 44M in 2010 to more than 111M in 2014.  

On The Hill:  The FCC has issued some tweaks to CableCARD regs via an "Order on Reconsideration."  Says CommLawBlog's Jeff Gee, the new rules appear "designed to correct some looseness in the regulatory language."  For more, go here. --- The FCC's Feb. 8th open meeting will consider the Commission's broadband plan (yes, again), rates for LECs, universal service support plus a show-and-tell on that "fact-based, data-driven decision making," (again too).  It'll begin at 10:30 EST in Room TW-C305. --- The House Communications Subcommittee will meet Feb. 16 to examine (and rail at) the FCC's new net neutrality regs. 

Around the World:  DTH services are soaring overseas as France's TNTSat hits a total of 2.65M receivers sold by the end of 2010, up 800K from '09.  Meanwhile, Bulgaria's incumbent telco, BTC, says its Vivacom sat service has grown to 30K subscribers after a launch last summer.

Heads Up:  CTHRA is now seeking applications for its 2011 Excellence in Human Resources awards.  Get  those nominations in by March 31.  More info is found here.•