DVR Boom

Brace yourselves for a DVR boom as MAGNAGLOBAL's latest DVR and VOD forecasts put U.S. DVR subscriber households at 40.5M TVHH by the end of 1Q11 with expectations for a 56% growth to reach 63.1M by the end of 2016.  As for VOD (which the company defines as including over-the-top services), the 1Q11 total stood at 53.3M for 1Q11 with expectations for a 33% growth to 71M by the end of 2016.

Both forecasts are up from earlier numbers as, MAGNAGLOBAL's manager of global forecasting, Alex Feldman tells The Morning BRIDGE, "Both DVRs and VOD have really become mainstream."  DVRs, he notes, have become valuable churn reducers "maybe more so now that disposable income is under pressure, and bundling a DVR service is a good way" to boost customer loyalty. 

Looking at the top four platform providers, MAGNAGLOBAL pegs Comcast at 10.4M DVR subscribers, DIRECTV at 9.9M, DISH at 7.9M, and Time Warner Cable at 4.7M.•

Rules & Regs: LightSquared Carping – AT&T/TM Sailing

FCC micro-managing continues as Bloomberg reports Sen. Charles Grassley (R-IA) says the Commission “chose to intentionally ignore” Congressional requests for documents about the initial OK of LightSquared’s wireless venture. --- Arizona approved - without a hearing - the AT&T proposed acquisition of T-Mobile. --- Transparency works wonders as the president of GLAAD and 6 board members resigned after backlash from backing the AT&T/T-Mobile deal (one of the resigning board members was a former AT&T lobbyist ... and any quick perusal of pro-merger letters submitted in many cases shows monies paid and letters sent, though not necessarily quid pro quo). --- Sens. Mark Warner (D-VA) and John Kerry (D-MA) have added their voices to those who think the FCC should devote its Universal Service Fund to broadband from its current landline focus.  Aren't many people who disagree with that but, as with all things FCC, it's moving sloooowly. --- FCC will hold an open meeting on Tuesday the 12th.•

Etc: Blockbuster's Couch Strategy – Comcast Stroking – Insight Perspective

Strategies:  DISH Network's newly acquired Blockbuster is offering a Kids Summer Pass for Camp WannaWatchaMovie which offers unlimited kids and family movies on DVD or Blu-Ray for $4.99/month.  Says the press release, thanks to the offer, "kids and parents don’t have to worry about putting on sun screen or getting bug bites."  Might want to rename that one Camp CouchPotato. --- To help insure that parents stay on their couches too, Blockbuster is also offering a movie rental and "cool beverage" for $1.49 during limited hours and 49¢ rentals on Sundays. --- --- Challenge Oceanic, trade on NASDAQ ... that's the plan for Hawaii Telecom.

Programming:  And the nod for the 2018 Winter Olympics goes to ... Pyeongchang, South Korea. 

Analyze This Redux (in case you missed it from The Evening BRIDGE): Charlie Rose will interview Oprah at the Allen & Co. summer mogul camp tomorrow (low of 41°, high of 79° and thunderstorms predicted). --- Counterintuitive?  Bernstein Research’s Craig Moffett asserts, “The stars may be aligning for a cable video renaissance, with Comcast leading the way.  With the TelCos' TV footprint expansions now nearing completion, and with satellite growth now a small fraction of what it was just a few years ago, the math behind cable's basic video subscriber losses is turning. Over the next few years, we believe cable's technology advantage will begin to make a difference; video subscriber share losses should slow and potentially even reverse.”  Furthermore, (echoing a VOD assertion made by student participants in the last Rocky Mountain CTAM Cable Apprentice), “Comcast's introduction of its new Xcalibur user interface, coupled with its industry-leading VOD selection, mark an important milestone. For the first time in twenty years, it is not a satellite operator, but instead a cable company – Comcast – that now appears to offer the best overall video experience in the Pay TV industry.” --- Citadel’s Shing Yin thinks Sprint will get an iPhone ... so “edge positive.” --- CableFAX parent Access Intelligence bought Cynopsis Media. --- Latest Twitter investors are valuing the company at $7B or so.

Footprints:  The Insight sale should close within the month, says the WSJ, with WideOpenWest and Mediacom leading the wanna-buys. As the map here shows, both operators have territories directly abutting the Insight footprint, making the combos very attractive. --- Meanwhile, The Morning BRIDGE parent, MediaBiz, has a new map showing provider footprints nationwide.  It's all part of our MediaCensus data project which includes footprints and subscribers down to the ZIP, program packaging info, network lineups and more.  To get a printed wall copy of our map (shown below), send a note to Blake Rockel, brockel@mediabiz.com and be sure to include your snail mail address!



In the Courts Redux (in case you missed it from The Evening BRIDGE): Claiming WPP’s representative used a seat on its board “to filch proprietary information,” TRA Global filed a counter-claim against a suit filed last month by WPP subsidiary Kantar Media Audiences ... “While copying is the sincerest form of flattery and certainly validates TRA’s solution [claiming Kantar’s Rapid-view Retail is a “direct rip-off of TRA’s Media TRAnalytics], we will always protect our shareholders’ investment in our proprietary technology and patents even when the wrongdoer is at the hands of a supposed ‘friend’,” said CEO Mark Lieberman.

Folks:  Former SeaChange exec Simon McGrath has signed on to help thePlatform with its European expansion. --- James Donnellan, MediaBiz’ ad rep, has added NewsCheckMedia (TVNewsCheck and NetNewsCheck) to his roster. --- Ryan McDermott has moved from Music Choice to Crown Media Networks where he is director of distribution for the Comcast, TWC and Bright House accounts in the eastern half of the country.

Wireless:  OK, you already knew this (or certainly should) but EchoStar/DISH's Charlie Ergen is busily cornering huge chunks of spectrum for satellite broadband.  He's already purchased Hughes Communications and has plans to buy DBSD North America and TerreStar Networks, both out of bankruptcy.  So what's he gonna do with all that?  Who knows?  But for a good backgrounder, check out this story from SNL Kagan. --- Taiwan's Pegatron Technology has orders for 15M new iPhone5s from Apple, says DigiTimes.  Shipping is set to start in September. 

SkyREPORT:  Rupert Pearce, now SVP and General Counsel, will become Immarsat's CEO  on New Year's Day 2012; that separates the Executive Chairman's office, to be held by current EO Andrew Sukawaty, from the CEO position. --- Early registration is now open for the International Symposium for Personal and Commercial Spaceflight (ISPCS).  If you plan to attend you can save $150 on your registration for the Oct. 19-20 event here. 

Catch up with the markets this afternoon in The Evening BRIDGE.•