So the "new normal" isn't exactly new .... In fact I stole it just this morning from Craig Moffett over at Bernstein Research who was writing about AT&T.  (More on that later.)

But the phrase, coupled with the start of the 3Q reporting season, got me wondering: Can we really expect to learn anything new from last quarter's reports? Or is it just going to be ... you know ... the same media mess?

I'm betting on the mess: The cable guys will mostly lose basic video subs while gaining HSI customers (although I'm thinking a slower pace there, thanks mostly to the economy); the big telco video plays will gain customers, again slower and again the economy; DIRECTV will gain subscribers (all hail the mighty Sunday Ticket ... and I'm wondering if those slamming doors at the NBA have boosted sales); and DISH ...

Oh goodness ... who knows what DISH will do. This is the fun one because they could be up, they could be down ... Heck, they could even unveil their long-under-wraps wireless wonder (Charlie Ergen in a superman suit?) and it could be, yes!, interesting!

But I digress. Fact is, even with our Hulus, our Netflixes, our TV Everywheres and other innovations, the media biz is really just spinning its tiers, trying to come up with a new business model. Could be that won't happen until the economic gloom lifts a tad. But until it does ... and somebody, somewhere has a true ah-ha! moment ... I'm betting on the new normal.

And nothing really new. •

FCC Designs Spectrum Ploy Graphic

The FCC posted a new graphic on its website showing its take on the impact mobile broadband services has had on consumers. The campaign says that while demand for spectrum is "exploding," the amount available for things like cell phone calls, digital textbooks, smartphone emails and tablet apps is rather "static."

Explaining what the agency calls "the spectrum crunch," the graphic says there will be a 35-fold increase in mobile broadband traffic by 2015 and that "without additional spectrum" consumers should "expect delays, more dropped calls and slower downloads." The effort also depicts the country's (projected?) ~300M active cellphones as a lit bomb waiting to explode.

The solution? Voluntary incentive auctions.

"Companies can decide to give back underused spectrum," advocates the graphic. "The FCC would auction that spectrum to those that provide wireless services" and "a portion of the proceeds would go to the U.S. Treasury." Presumably to pay off some debt… Spec it out.

Etc.: Groupon's Discount IPO - AT&T's "New Normal" Q3 - Facebook Brain Power

$$$: WSJ reports that Groupon is planning an ironically-discounted IPO of about 10% the company's valuation of less than $12.5B due to market instability. The pub says the sale now could be closer to $500M-$700M. --- Microsoft is said to be working with Silver Lake Partners to put together a bid for Yahoo. WSJ has those details, too. --- Multiscreen vendor Qwilt, founded last year by a handful of Cisco and Juniper Networks vets, raised $24M in a couple rounds of funding. Company board member Tom Dyal said while the buzz about OTT video is on the consumer side, "few people are talking about the enormous strain all this new content is putting on ISPs." Qwilt, for the record, sells tech that manages said internet video through a single platform.

Q3: AT&T reported 176K net new U-verse subs during Q311; down from 202K in Q2 and 236K in Q310. The company said 3/4 of those subs are triple or quad-play customers with average rev per 3-play sub at $170, a 5.7% y/y increase. As mentioned in SkyBOX, Bernstein's Craig Moffett says the company's results are simply "the new normal." The analyst opines that while the T-Mobile move seemed "perfect" just six months ago, now it looks AT&T will have to go it alone. "Growth may get a little better with the new iPhone in Q4…" but "smartphone penetration shows signs of reaching an early plateau." However, he notes, "suddenly the blogoshpere is arguing that AT&T, not Verizon, is now the place to get the best iPhone experience..."

Rules & Regs: The House Energy and Commerce Manufacturing subcommittee will hold a hearing next Tuesday on legalizing (and regulating) internet gambling. --- The FCC's cybersecurity chief defended the agency's controversial proposal that would require broadband providers to report glitches this week saying more data "would enable the FCC to track and analyze (problems with) broadband networks and determine if action is needed to prevent further outages." CNet has the story.

OTT: Amazon Prime added more than 1,000 PBS shows to its streaming video service. --- CE maker Vizio is offering a free three-month subscription to Hulu Plus on its 8" tablet.

Research: The NCTA says the cable industry is set to employ DOCSIS 3.0 technology to 77% of US HHs by the end of the year, up from 60% in 2010. --- ABI says global hybrid STB penetration will hit 60% by 2016, an increase from 40% last year. The firm says satellite ops particularly like internet-enabled boxes as they look to deliver advanced services (read: OTT) in regions with strong broadband penetration…

Dist.: Sony Entertainment launched its FTA South Asian SAB TV, an Indian family comedy channel, in NYC and Dallas/Ft. Worth. Combined, the channel will reach more than 10M HHs, the largest North American footprint for an FTA.

Mobile: On the heals of its deal with DIRECTV, social TV app developer Miso unveiled another partnership with AT&T's U-verse. Lost Remote has details. --- The Weather Channel announced a re-designed app for iPads including 3D graphics and social integration.

Retail: The best place to buy consumer electronics, says Consumer Reports, is… online? Yup. The customer-centric org. says people consistently rank shopping online "higher in almost every respect" than at a brick-and-mortar. According to the group's latest study, 34% of all electronics purchases are made online -- more than double the rate from just a few years ago.

SkyREPORT: ViaSat said ILS successfully launched ViaSat-1 Wednesday night. Cheers from the WildBlue yonder could be heard. --- Arianespace said Thursday that 1) a ground support system leak during fueling delayed the Soyuz launcher and 2) the launch countdown will resume today. --- Eutelsat is launching a new VOD service using the HbbTV hybrid standard called KabelKiosk Choice.  

Up, Down & Over There: Disney said it entered into a joint venture with Russian broadcaster Channel One, starting with a new TV show called "After School" for young Ruskies. --- Here, there, and everywhere are retrans disputes. One such tiff across the pond is BSkyB not hip with the idea of having been singled out to provide free services to the BBC for satellite carriage. BroadbandTV News has the story. --- Chinese cable op Beijing Gehua Cable will use STMicroelectronics' HD cable modem in all of its STBs.

Green: The NJ Dept. of Environmental Protection awarded Verizon with the 2011 Recycling Award for its efforts to promote recycling within and outside the company.

Misc.: SpikeTV and the CEA announced that the network with be the official entertainment TV partner for the upcoming 2012 International CES in Las Vegas. --- NAMIC named NAMIC-Southern California as its Chapter of the Year.

Hmmm…: Scientists say people with more Facebook friends have "denser brains," and users with the most FB pals have the most grey matter up top… the area of the brain associated with social skills. The Guardian has the story.

--- Catch today's media market news in The Evening BRIDGE. •