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October 27, 2011 @ 1:00 AM
HBO
Time Running Out in DIRECTV/Fox Dispute

DIRECTV and Fox parent News Corp. have one more week to reach a new carriage deal before the satcaster says it will drop several Fox nets. With a Nov. 1 deadline quickly approaching, many wonder how the latest public dispute over retransmission costs will take shape.

For now, says Collins Stewart's Tom Eagan, DIRECTV has the leverage. Despite the Fox cable nets in dispute (which includes FX, Fox Soccer, Nat Geo and 19 RSNs) collectively count in the 'hundreds of millions' of subscribers, the analyst doesn't expect dropping these channels would significantly increase a loss of subs for DIRECTV.

"While true that the RSNs enjoy a loyal fan base, we expect that 1) many of these subs are also fans of football and would be reluctant to churn from (DIRECTV's) Sunday Ticket mid-season and 2) the current NBA lockout reduces the impact of the dropped RSNs." With nearly all the Fox RSNs airing NBA games, Eagan estimates DIRECTV would be financially "willing" to lose 1% of its subs before paying the increased rates.

It's worth noting, however, that DIRECTV's Fox News affiliate agreement is up for renewal in December, and that deal "could change the balance in News Corp.'s favor." •
SNL
Op/Ed: Jobs Can't "Crack" Pay-TV

As the industry combs Steve Jobs' authorized autobiography for clues into Apple's plans for television, many observers wonder what an Apple TV would actually look like. And while some long to see Apple do to pay-TV what the iPod did to the music industry, others believe the task is too difficult to "crack."

Take Business Insider's Ken Tindell, for example, who says that no matter how nice a hypothetical Apple TV might be to use, a single video screen cannot upend a global TV industry more than 50 years old. Seeing as how the video distribution system is, at least technologically speaking - fragmented, how could an Apple TV disrupt the current model?

"How would an AppleTV support satellite, terrestrial, cable and IPTV?" Tindell asks. "Different countries have adopted different solutions and a global product would need to support them all." For example, he says, if the Apple product didn't have a DVB-T receiver: No Europe.

Using TiVo as another example, the writer asks how the TV would reach the consumer without explicit consent from each provider. "TiVo started selling to consumers, but as the TV industry moved to digital, TiVo had to shift to selling to operators" for survival.

So… what happens? Tie the product to individual operators? How happy would a consumer be to drop $2K on an AppleTV only to find out it doesn't work in their new home/neighborhood/city/state? Operators retrofit their infrastructure to fit Apple?

"It's possible that Apple could make a TV so awesome, so utterly compelling to the consumer, so technically capable it could handle all digital TV systems," Tindell writes. But a "standards-based approach to TV is not universal" and "the industry isn't facing a shattered business model and withered revenues." •

Media Inovations Summit
Etc.: Final USF Opinions - Vast Q3 Reports - (More) Netflix Rubbernecks

Rules & Regs: U.S. Telecom President/CEO Walter McCormick took to the blogosphere to blast just about everyone who has an opinion on USF reform. His solution? Adopting the telco industry's proposal… no questions asked. Meanwhile, media reform groups like Free Press, who McCormick calls "career protestors" and "reactionaries" disagree. FP Director Josh Levy says if you want to hand over even more or your hard-earned cash to the telcos, then the FCC's plan is for you. Read his take at Huff Post. --- Broadband via wall sockets is a step closer to becoming reality, as the FCC green-lit rules for BPL (broadband over power lines) without any major changes. TVTech has details.

Q3: Amazon reported yet another lower quarterly profit, down 73% to $63M.  Sales, however, were up 44% to $10.88B. --- Sprint reported Q3 operating revs of $8.3B with the company's best total wireless net sub adds in more than 5 yrs with 1.3M (includes wireless, pre-paid, post-paid, wholesale and affiliate). The company reported operating income of $208M, a net loss of $301M and a diluted loss of $.10 per share. --- Broadcom reported Q3 net revs of $1.96B, an 8.4% y/y increase with $534M in FCF. The company's GAAP net income for the period was $270M ($.48 per share-diluted), compared with $328 million ($.60 per share-diluted) in Q310. --- DreamWorks reported total revs of $160.8M with net income of $19.7M ($.23 per share-diluted). --- RadioShack reported total net sales and operating revs increased 3% to $1.03B. Net income on the period was $.3M ($0.00 per share-diluted), compared to Q310's net income of $46M ($.37 per share-diluted). --- LodgeNet reported Q3 revs of $106.8M compared to $113.8M in Q310. The company's operating income increased 30.5% to $8.9M with net income attributable to stockholders reaching $.02 per share, an improvement over the $-.12 the stock lost in Q310. --- Rogers Communications reported a 7% increase in Q3 adjusted EPS to $.89 with $492M in FCF. The cable op added 161K new wireless customers with wireless data revs increasing 28%, cable revs up 4% and media revs up 10%.

In Court: Bloomberg is reporting that Groupon is suing two former employees for allegedly taking "confidential trade secrets" to their newly-hired positions at Google.

Research: Last week we reported on the American Academy of Pediatrics' recent study that says infants and tots shouldn't be watching TV. Here's a follow-up story in the NYT (on a subsequent study set for release next week) that says parents are placing their kids in front of video screens more than ever before. "Parents increasingly are handing their iPhones to their 1 1/2-year-old kid as a shut-up toy…" --- Pyramid Research says mobile devices will become the platform of choice for accessing social networking sites in Latin America as the region is poised for 116.8M users by 2015.

Alt. Vid: Want more Netflix coverage? Company Town writes about the company's "nuclear winter" and how some (but not all) analysts are jumping ship after the company's 74% plunge since July.

Online: YouTube unveiled a couple changes to its user experience this week with the launch of WeVideo - a cloud-based video editing platform - and a new end-screen that appears when videos are finished playing to help users find more content. --- Cablevision launched a cool tool that turns phone numbers on a website into clickable instant-dialing links. The company's Click-to-Call is a free service to any Optimum Voice customer across Cablevision's entire footprint.

M&A: Local reports say New Wave should close on its Comcast assets purchase in Illinois by mid-December.

SkyREPORT: Intelsat is teaming up with du, a telco service provider in the United Arab Emirates, for turnkey MCPC (multichannel per carrier) distribution on the Intelsat-10 satellite located at 68.5ºE offering a video neighborhood across Africa, the Middle East and Asia-Pacific.

Folks: IBM said Virginia Rometty will replace Sam Palmisano in January becoming the company's first female CEO. Palmisano will stay with IBM as chairman. --- Rogers said that current CFO Bill Linton will retire in Q212 and be succeeded by senior financial executive Anthony Staffieri. --- Christopher W. Shean is new SVP/CFO at Liberty Media; David J.A. Flowers is new SVP/managing director for alternative investments. --- Former Democratic FCC Commissioner Susan Ness (94-01) has been elected to the board of directors of Gannett.  

--- Catch today's media market news in The Evening BRIDGE. •
 
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