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February 24, 2012 @ 1:00 AM
Echostar
SkyBOX: Eyeing the Antennae
by Evie Haskell


"It's cool to have rabbit ears again," said the Wall Street Journal.  In a paean to TV-how-it-used-to-be, the Murdoch crown jewel looked at figures provided by OTA retailer Antennas Direct and declared a veritable revival of over-the-air reception.  Customers, said the WSJ, are more and more flocking to free broadcast (coupled, of course, with the likes of Netflix and Hulu).

The media-rati promptly took off on a binge of "broadcast days are back again."  Reading some reports, you might even think that the time has come for traditional pay TV providers to eye their hara-kari options.  

But really? Rabbit ears?

We checked with the folks who track all things consumer electronic (the Consumer Electronics Association) and the word on an OTA revival is ... not so much.

"A lot's been written about cord cutting," noted CEA analyst Shawn DuBravac, "but the numbers aren't that substantial."

This is not to say that sales of over-the-air antennas (which these days look more like harmonic descendants of the Twilight Zone than rabbit ears) have been lagging.  According to the CEA, shipments of OTA antennas to dealers have gained by around 25% from 4.7M in 2009 to 5.9M projected for this year.  Shipments of internet connectable TVs, however, have soared from around 3M shipped in 2009 to 9M projected for this year.  

Of course not all internet connectable TVs are actually connected whereas antennas shipped (and, presumably, sold) almost certainly are.  Chalk that up as a point in favor of the rabbit ear revival.  In addition, as DuBravac quite reasonably points out, the question of whether TV via a combination of internet and OTA antennas will accelerate "is a big issue."  (And a complicated one as witness the antenna-connection boasted by the likes of Aereo.)  

But an OTA onslaught?  

As we said, not so much.  At least not yet.  Besides, the basic subscriber erosion from MVPDs is clearly slowing, not accelerating.•
Horowitz
DISH, STARZ/ENCORE All Gain Subs

Another round of quarterly reports were released today.  Here's the latest:

DISH reported positive Q4 results with a sub gain of 22K and a 13% y/y increase in total revenue of $3.63B. The company nabbed 39% of category gross adds v. 36.9% a year ago, and as the satcaster continues to focus on retention rather than growth, quarterly churn strengthen to 1.55%. Bernstein Research's Craig Moffett said the market share pendulum has swung back towards balance between DISH and DIRECTV, possibly reflecting a satellite industry that has reached its prime. "This is either the end of the growth phase (glass half full) or the beginning of the decline phase (glass half empty)," the analyst quipped. "The satellite operators are faced with the unappetizing choice of accepting the declining video margins of the cable TV operators, but without cable's higher margin broadband offset, or, alternatively, of holding the line on margins by raising prices and in the process becoming less and less competitive." CEO Joe Clayton told investors the Blockbuster brand is helping to curb sub losses... but Moffett called the former-DVD retailer "little more than a sideshow."

EchoStar reported total revenue of $834M for its Q1 (ending Dec. 31, 2011), an impressive 62% y/y increase. Revs hit $2.76B for FY11, a 17.5% increase from FY10. During its quarterly conference call Thursday, General Counsel Dean Manson said the company is on track for its planned launch of EchoStar 17 this summer. He said the satellite will deliver HughesNet G4 broadband internet service and allow the company to expand its consumer satellite business. Manson also said the DBS-specific satellite EchoStar 16 is under construction and should launch sometime in late 2012.

• Liberty Global
posted a Q411 net loss of $435M, compared to net earnings of $57.5M in Q410. The company reported a y/y revenue gain of $2.4B during the period. Germany is now the company's largest single market (after acquiring KBW last last year), and ended Q4 with ~4.77M analog/~2M digital TV subs. 

• Liberty Media
's STARZ and ENCORE services saw 4Q11 subscriptions grow by 8% and 1% respectively y/y. Revenue increased by 96% to $1B while Q311 revenues were up 48% to $3B.

Liberty Interactive's Q4 results saw revenues up by 7% to $3.1B and annual revenues up 8% to $9.6B. Liberty also announced that Liberty Interactive (as asset-backed security) will be split into two pieces: Interactive (QVC, e-commerce, 34% stake in HSNI and $500M cash) and Ventures ($1.25B in cash, passive equity stakes other than HSNI and exchangeable debentures).

Kudelski reported a FY11 operating income loss of €83.2M ($111M) in its digital TV business, with net income down €14.7M  ($19.6M) to €40.6M ($54.27M). On the positive side, Nagra continued its success in IP-video with DISH/EchoStar, Canal+, PrisaTV and others. •
Etc.: Network 2011-12 Ad Haul - Verizon's 'Evil Genius' – SBCA Battles Taxes

Advertising: Courtesy of AdWeek, here's a round-up of several networks' upfront ad haul (and links to details): The CW finished its upfront take with between $400M-$420M selling somewhere between 75% and 80% of available inventory. Read more. NBC is writing deals "at significant premiums" from last year, with 9% CPM increases for its 2011-12 sched. "Further along in its deal making is ABC, which has been cutting premiums at around 10 percent." Details on both, here. The pub says CBS has "resumed its pas de deux" with buyers as the broadcaster started selling its ad inventory at a "healthy" 14% premium over last year's rates. Fox is dealing on 11% increases on as much as 80% of its inventory. "Fox plays their game, we play ours..." says CBS' Les Moonves. And, to top it off, here's the WSJ piece that says "advertisers are taking solace in the glow of a television."

Rules & Regs: With the passage of payroll tax cut extension, Bloomberg says the broadcast industry "emerged relatively unscathed from one of its biggest political and policy battles in years." Quoting one lobbyist, broadcasters "got nearly everything" they wanted. --- NCTA President & CEO Michael Powell said the organization supports President Obama's "Consumer Privacy Bill of Rights." He said cable operators and programmers have long been leaders in protecting customers' privacy and is ready to work with the gov't on the plan. Verizon issued a statement of support for the proposal, as did Senate Commerce Committee Chair Sen. John Rockefeller (D- W.VA).

Op/Ed: Calling Verizon an "evil genius," GigaOm's Stacey Higginbotham says there's a "dirty secret" inside the company's spectrum deal with cable. "If I were Boxee, Roku, Amazon, Google, Apple or other names in the connected home and content environment, I'd start pressing the FCC, DoJ and the participants themselves for answers..." Read more. --- Here's another eye opener: NFL Hall of Fame QB Troy Aikman says the National Football League might not be the number one sport in the U.S. in 10 to 20 years. Why? He says he was "OK" not getting the Thursday night game via NFL Network... and "that's no good." Read more.

Battleground:  The Satellite Broadcasting & Communications Association (SBCA) says it is "vigorously fighting an unfair" proposal in Utah that would provide an additional tax break for cable customers but not subscribers of satellite. At issue is a bill that would require satellite subs to pay a 6.25% state excise tax on their monthly service bills.  The group says current tax law in Utah keeps satellite TV customers from benefiting from a 50% franchise fee exemption that subscribers to cable TV receive. If the legislation should pass, the SBCA says cable subs would pay only a 1.25% tax on their bills.

Strategy: AT&T says it's working on a home automation platform for service providers called Digital Life.

Deals: Set-top maker Pace announced a global partnership with TiVo Thursday to license TiVo hardware in Pace STBs. The announcement comes on the heals of TiVo's recent agreement with Samsung. Financial terms were unavailable.

Research: According to Bytemobile, video now drives the majority of bandwidth consumption. The research firm says video traffic represents between 50%-70% of all traffic on networks. Read more. --- According to craigconnects, the research arm of craigslist, there is a "dramatic lack of trust Americans hold for sources of election news." The group says of six media explored (cable, broadcast, newspapers, radio, internet and social media), traditional news outlets scored highest in "perceived credibility" but less than 25% of the population describe "any" source of election coverage as "very credible." Check out the infographic. --- Even as more Americans download and stream movies online, Adweek says the theater experience is more popular than ever. Another cool infographic, here.

Programming: MGM is launching a 24-hr. Spanish-language network called Canal Ella. The net will be available on Cablevision and some Comcast systems, along with Liberty Cablevision, Choice Cable TV and Claro TV in Puerto Rico.

Mobile: California Attorney General Kamal Harris said Apple, Google, Microsoft, Amazon, HP, and Research In Motion have agreed to require mobile app developers to include privacy policies about data collection. Read more. --- T-Mobile revealed Thursday that it lost a net 526K subs during its Q4, a number observers say shows the company is losing contract-based customers faster than telcos are losing land-line customers. Despite the numbers, CEO Philipp Humm says the carrier is moving ahead with its planned 4G LTE build out that should be ready sometime 2013. Reports say T-Mobile will invest $4B on the network upgrade, funded largely by the $3B break-up fee AT&T paid after its failed takeover. --- In related news, Kineto Wireless expanded its VoIP partnership with T-Mobile by introducing a smart VoIP app, which will compete with Skype and Google Voice, allowing users to make calls over WiFi on Android, iOS and Windows devices.

Tech: Google says its going to start making "heads-up" glasses that stream video and data in real time straight to the user's eye-wear. Talk about hands-free. NYT has details.

People: Via Satellite named Iridium CEO Matt Desch as the 2011 Satellite Executive of the Year.

Green: AT&T is planning a new eco-rating system for mobile devices on its network that will rank units for based on environmentally "preferable" materials, energy efficiency, responsible end-of-life options and eco-friendly manufacturing.

Events: The ACA announced it would make available a $129 day-pass for the 2012 ACA Summit in Washington, D.C. Details here.

--- Catch today's media market news in The Evening BRIDGE. •
 
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