Global IPTV Subs Set To Double

At the end of 2011 there were 34.3M global households subscribing to pay-IPTV services as their primary video source. Over the next five years, that number will more than double by 42M, taking the total of worldwide IPTV subscribers to 76.5M by 2016.

According to Informa Telecoms & Media, revenues from IPTV services during the same five-year window will "almost" double, up from $6.2B in 2011 to $11.9B in 2016. However, the market research firm says, while growth in subs and revenue will see tremendous increases, penetration rates will remain "relatively" flat as only 5% of the world's TV households are expected to subscribe to an IPTV platform in five years.

According to Informa's latest global IPTV study, the U.S. will be the largest paying IPTV territory, with 14M subs by 2016. The firm says the growth may surprise some given the high penetration rates of both cable and satellite. "However, IPTV operators have already scored considerable success, gaining customers with their attractive triple-play packages and exploiting the traditionally fraught relationship between consumers and the cable operators," the study says.

Internationally, Informa's global IPTV report suggests much of the future growth is expected to be in the Asian Pacific, which will become the largest IPTV region in 2014. The firm says by 2016, the area will account for 25.4M of the world's total IPTV subscribers thanks to 7M in China, 6.4M in Japan and 4.5M in South Korea.

"IPTV operators can have a disruptive effect on all the distribution platforms in competitive markets - including other IPTV operators," the study says. "Cable operators have followed suit, often offer(ing) cheaper mini-packages to triple-play subs. Greater rivalry means customers are being offered more content and services at very reasonable rates."

Other findings from the group's study include:

• France will remain Europe's IPTV leader, but growth will slow in the coming years (5.1M subs by 2016).

• Hong Kong will have the highest level of IPTV penetration in 2016 with 55%. Singapore and Slovenia will follow with 54% and 45%, respectively.

• Latin America is expected to record among the lowest rates, Informa says, "mainly due to the slow start of IPTV in much of the region - with lack of infrastructure and regulatory restrictions." (Colombia being the exception, with penetration reaching 33%.)

• IPTV subscription and on-demand revenues are forecast to reach $11.9B by 2016, up from $6.2B last year. Total subscription revenues will stand at $9.8B in 2016: Triple-play subs will contribute $6.6B, dual-play subs will add $1.7B. •

ACA: Retain HD 'Must Carry' Exemption

The ACA Monday urged the FCC to retain what it called a 'consumer-friendly' exemption that allows independent and smaller cable companies to distribute 'must-carry' TV signals they receive in HD to customers in analog. The group says because HD is such a bandwidth-intensive format, the FCC should not only extend the carriage exemption, but permanently exempt analog-only systems from the mandate to avoid unnecessary harm to small cable systems and subscribers.

According to ACA info, the total number of systems utilizing the HD carriage exemption has decreased during the past few years, but the need for the exemption among smaller systems relying on it has gone up. The group also urged the FCC to reject a recommendation by the NAB that would allow the agency to withhold the HD exemption from systems carrying one or more signals in HD.

"The burdens on small systems of transmitting must-carry signals in HD are as great now, or perhaps even greater, than they were in 2008 when the FCC first adopted the HD carriage exemption," the group said. If cable operators with less than 553 MHz are forced to distribute the signals in HD, ACA said these systems will be required to move channels - often ones that are more desired than the must-carry channels - to less subscribed digital-only tiers that require customers to lease or buy equipment capable of receiving the signals.

The NAB says the exemption should be waived if an operator provides any channel in HD. •

Etc: DIRECTV v. Tribune - Hundt Blasts FCC Reform Act - Voice 'Erosion' Coming to Cable?

Disputes: Tribune Broadcasting stations in 16 markets began notifying DIRECTV subs Monday that they could lose access to local stations at midnight, March 31 if the two sides fail to reach a new carriage agreement. The broadcaster says DIRECTV is "refusing to offer a fair deal" and that there's a "strong likelihood that service interruptions will occur." In response, DIRECTV spokesman Robert Mercer told The Morning BIRDGE: "We anticipate that Tribune will honor its 165-year history of serving the public interest and allow the stations to remain on as we continue to negotiate. We believe Tribune’s local news and other programming is important to the public, have always compensated Tribune fairly and have no problem continuing to do so. We have absolutely no intention of denying anyone access to these stations, unless Tribune specifically demands it."

Rules & Regs: Former FCC Chairman Reed Hundt ('93-'97) penned a letter to Rep. Henry Waxman (D-CA) expressing his "grave concerns" over the proposed Federal Communications Process Reform Act. "Clause by clause, line by line, the law should cause everyone to worry (about) the ability of the FCC to add to its good legacy of protecting consumers, fostering productive gains, opening doors to investment and generally earning the respect of Americans for the process of government." Read his entire remarks.

In Court: Verizon asked a federal court in Texas to reject a request by TiVo to have another DVR model added to the list of STBs being used by Verizon that allegedly infringe upon TiVo's IP patents. Verizon told the court that TiVo has known about the product for years, but "failed to exercise diligence in seeking to amend its infringement contentions."

Research: Standard & Poor's says the voice line erosion that telcos have been dealing with for years is about to hit cable as consumers abandon fixed line service for mobile and VoIP. The firm says in 2012, VoIP lines will be almost 50% larger than circuit-switched lines... most of which are consumer accounts... most of which are provided by cable. Read more at TMCNet. --- More from the iHS Screen Digest piece making its way around that says streaming media consumption will surpass DVD watching for the first time by the end of 2012. Interestingly enough, the firm says while films bought or rented online will grow by 135% this year to 2.4B, the growth translates to consumer spending of $1.72B... compared to the $11.1B spent on DVDs (and Blu-Rays) in 2011 (i.e. 57% of all movies will be watched online, but at only 12% of the spending). Says iHS analyst Dan Cryan: "The result would be a net decline in home entertainment revenue even as consumption reached previously unattainable heights." Thank Netflix, Hulu and Amazon Prime, the firm says, which made up 94% of all online movie viewing last year.

Advertising: "While social media is getting a lot of attention and spending, the big bucks are going where they've always gone -- TV," says Ad Age. According an article citing Magna Global estimates for ad spending in Q1: print is down 5.6%, radio down 0.3%, outdoor up 5% and TV up 4.5%. For the full year, Magna sees gains of 6.8% for TV ad spending, including political and Olympics; 11% for web; 0.8% for radio; and 4% for outdoor. Not surprisingly, the firm forecasts declines of 6% for print.

Tech: Despite reports suggesting otherwise, "the set top box is here to stay." So says Roku founder & CEO Anthony Wood. Check out Home Media Mag's 6 Questions with Roku's top exec where he says a major cable op could begin offering a la carte programming via OTT... separate from its traditional bundled subscription packages.

Online: Video search engine blinkx said it reached a new audience milestone, surpassing 100M monthly unique visitors in Jan. 2012. During that month, the company said 181M users in the U.S. watched nearly 40B videos online. --- Cox Digital Solutions is partnering with The Weather Channel to become the exclusive seller of political advertising across the TWCC's web property, www.weather.com.

Mobile: Mobile app developer eMbience is launching myFOX, a customizable news app featuring content from myFOX stations across the country. The company said myFOX will initially be available on 25 Verizon handsets based on Qualcomm's Brew platform by the end of March.

Ratings: Reuters says the season finale of AMC's "The Walking Dead" garnered 9M viewers, "surpassing anything on cable before." So what's next for the net? 'Rational investment in original programming.' --- WSJ is reporting that the average audience for 11 of the 15 most-watched cable nets are down y/y. The biggest losers? Viacom's Nickelodeon, Time Warner's TNT and News Corp.'s FX. Read more. --- VH1 says its original programming helped boost its Q1 ratings by 33%, averaging a .4 in the adult 18-49 demo.

Programming: Netflix hired horror film director Eli Roth to create its next original series "Hemlock Grove." --- WorldBand Media announced the launch of ¡Inspírate!, an inspirational Spanish-language talk channel on SiriusXM channel 145.

Wow!: Cablevision's o&o TV station in Long Island has set a world record. Well, the station's sports anchor has... According to the company, News 12's Bob Wolff has been recognized by Guinness World Records for the "longest career as a sports broadcaster." 73 years and still going! Congrats Bob.

People: First Howard Stern. Next... Rush Limbaugh? Reports are circling the interwebs that Rush could be the next professional gabber to move from radio to satellite. Read more. --- Bloomberg says News Corp.'s James Murdoch is resigning as director from three more boards on which he sits.

Letter to the Editor: "Discovery spokesman David Leavy told the USA Today that the outfit will 'absolutely not' pull the plug (on OWN.)" Wow - that statement by Discovery is an interesting one. It is hard to recall a company publicly stating that they were holding on to a financial anchor while it drags down earnings. Perhaps we should laud them for their honesty while selling short? (Or maybe they know something we don't.) -Bob Block --- And we got an "I don't like gun control" in my newsletter letter.

--- Catch today's media market news in The Evening BRIDGE. •