Change is coming.  Duh.

And it's coming fast.  Double duh.

But how fast?

Cisco released an interesting bit of research this week.  Self-serving, to be sure.  (Who do you think wants to supply all the infrastructure?)  But the Cisco numbers jibe pretty well with other recent research.  And they suggest a future whipping wirelessly through the air.  

According to the latest Cisco Visual Networking Index (here), global mobile data traffic will jump by 18-fold between last year and 2016.  As for the per device usage, the chart here gives some pretty strong clues.  

The biggest mobile data hog are projected to be laptops which are expected to account for 6942 MBs/month by 2016.  Which almost certainly means a whole lot of mobile video watching on laptops.  (Can you say TV Everywhere?)  In terms of growth, smartphones are expected to balloon by an astounding 1617.3% to 2576 MBs/month, which suggests that a whole lot of folks will be walking into walls as they watch the latest videos on their cells.

But the most interesting thing, for those of us in media, is exactly where – and from whom – all this wireless bandwidth is going to appear.  And that very non-trivial question explains a whole bunch of the moving and shaking now impacting our businesses.

Think DISH, with its growing stockpile of wireless spectrum.  Think the cable companies wrapping their arms around Verizon Wireless.  Think Google's acquisition of Motorola Mobility or ....

But you get the idea.  It's a major driver for all our companies.  And something well worth keeping your eye on.•

Payroll Bill OKs Spectrum Auctions

The U.S. House of Representatives and Senate have agreed on legislation authorizing and funding the reallocation of broadcaster spectrum for commercial wireless use. The bill, which authorizes the FCC to auction off spectrum voluntarily relinquished by the nation's broadcasters, is likely to be passed today by Congress as part of the larger Payroll Tax extension plan.

Proponents say bringing new spectrum to market through incentive auctions will foster innovation in wireless technologies, generate investment opportunities, and help spur job-creation. And, as reported in yesterday's Morning BRIDGE, the bill also includes spectrum for the long-proposed deployment of a nationwide interoperable public-safety broadband network.

Reaction was swift from around D.C. Rep. Greg Walden (R-OR), whose JOBS Act anchored most of the spectrum legislation within the payroll tax package, said lawmakers were able to find "a good balance." Senate Commerce Committee Chair John Rockefeller (D- WVA), who lead the charge for a first-responders network, called the bill "monumental for all Americans."

More details to come as the legislation become codified. •

Etc.: CBS Flirts w/ Netflix - PoliticoTV? - FCC Kills (most) Robocalls

WebTV: CBS is reportedly in talks with Netflix about producing some original content for the streaming video service. Bloomberg has details. --- Which companies are having early success as YouTube rolls out its 100-channel video service? AdWeek has this story. --- Could Politico be eying a new web-TV channel? The political newspaper made a video run back in 2008, but the project failed to take hold. Now, reports show the pub filed a trademark application for "PoliticoTV," and questions loom as to where such a product would thrive.

QRs: DIRECTV's 4Q11 in the U.S. showed an unmistakable slowing, notes Bernstein Research's Craig Moffett.  The company's Latin American business, however, continued to fire on all metrics.  Among the key numbers in today's report:  U.S. subscribers grew by 125K, below Street consensus and less than half of 4Q10 numbers.  ARPU broke through the $100 mark (at $101.38) but programming costs jumped by 13% per subscriber.   In contrast, DIRECTV Latin America showed revenues of $1.37B up 33% y/y with net sub additions of 590K, well ahead of consensus and a 56% jump y/y.  Overall revenues were $7.5B with U.S. numbers "stronger than expected," according to ISI's Vijay Jayant. --- Discovery reported a strong 2011 with revenues up 12% to $4.235B and free cash  flow soaring 68% to $1.042B.  For the fourth quarter, revenues increased 11% y/y to $1.122B with U.S. nets up 11% and international nets up 12%.  And, no way is CEO Zaslav backing off support for Oprah.  (So, ya'll, give it time.) --- Knology saw 4Q revenues increase 4.6% y/y to $129.3M.  Across the full year, the company added 1,262 video connections 8,292 voice connections, and 19,434 data connections; these include 9,000 connections acquired in its 2Q11 Fort Gordon transaction. --- EarthLink reported Q4 net income of $4.2M ($.04 per share) with non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA of $81.6M. The ISP posted revenue of $350.2M during the period and $1.31B for the full year 2011, "more than doubling" from both Q410 and FY10 due to the acquisitions of ITC^Deltacom, One Communications and five IT services companies since December 2010.

Disputes: There's no way you don't know who New York Knick Jeremy Lin is by now. A side note to his inspiring rise to fame is that his performance on the court has forced execs from MSG and Time Warner Cable to resume negotiations over the two sides' contract dispute... the first time since December. NYP has details.

Rules & Regs: The FCC approved new regs that requires companies get written consent from users before making any unsolicited "robocalls." However, automated calls from political campaigns or debt collectors (among some others) are still permitted.

Advertising: CBS Chief Les Moonves has big plans for his network's Super Bowl coverage next year ... to the tune of "a potential $4M per (ad) spot." If his vision materializes, it would be a 14% increase from NBC's jaw-dropping $3.5M price tag for this year's game (which, in itself, was a 17% increase from Fox's rate of $3M in 2010). --- On a similar tip, ABC has reportedly sold out of its 30-sec. spots for the Academy Awards this year (Feb. 26) selling each for an estimated $1.7M per (as compared to $1.55M in 2010).

Scandals: The "civil war" brewing at News Corp.'s the Sun newspaper has reached new levels. Now, the UK's National Union of Journalists is calling on employees of the pub to organize against News International and Rupert Murdoch. The NUJ's General Secretary had this to say.  --- The Fair Labor Association began its investigation into the working conditions at Foxconn's factory in Shenzen, China, where many Apple products are made. The initial report says that working conditions are way above average. The kicker? What’s considered "average." Reuters has the story.

Research: SNL Kagan says between Q309 and Q311, retrans fees increased 46.8% across the board. The firm says retrans fees now average about $.33 per subscriber per month, up from $.23 in Q309. The nets who earn the most (per sub)? Kagan says 1) Univision ($.61), 2) Sinclair ($.49), 3) Newport and LIN ($.48 each) and 4) CBS ($.45). --- Parks Associates says nearly 1/3 (31%) of all U.S. broadband HHs regularly watch OTT content on TV sets. The research firm also says during the 2011 holiday season, 4% of HHs bought some kind of OTT console, leading to an overall penetration rate of 12% among broadband homes. --- Although soaring sales of Amazon's Kindle Fire and other low-priced tablets trimmed Apple's market share during Q4, it was Apple's own newly-intro'd iPhone 4S that proved to be the strongest competitor for the iPad during the final three months of 2011. According to iHS, Apple shipped 15.4M iPads during the period (up 39% from Q3), but the company's share of the global media tablet market slipped to 57%, down from 64% in the previous quarter.

Programming: The Travel Channel is launching three new unscripted series: "Baggage Battles" is about people who bid on unclaimed luggage; "Toy Hunters" about some guy who collects and sells vintage, rare toys; and "Hotel Impossible" about a fix & flip hotelier in Florida. --- Fox Deportes is premiering two new Spanish-language shows: "Central Fox" is a daily sports newsshow airing at noon, 3pm and 11pm; and "La Ultima Palabra" (The Last Word) featuring former ESPN Deportes sports talker Andre Marin.

SkyREPORT: The Society of Satellite Professionals International (SSPI) announced the recipients of its 2012 Industry Innovators Awards. Here are the results. Innovation in Ka-Band: Eutelsat and ViaSat. Innovation in Mitigation of Galaxy-15: Intelsat and SES. Innovation in Industry Collaboration/Safe Use of Space: Space Data Association (SDA). Innovation in Interference Identification: Comtech EF Data. Here's more info. --- SES said it will relocate AMC-3 from 87 degrees West to 67 degrees West to better optimize coverage of Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean.

Over, Up & Under: Chinese PPV & VOD platform You On Demand inked a deal with Lionsgate for film titles on its subscription VOD service in China. --- The BBC said it will air the following events from the London 2012 Olympics in 3D: The opening and closing ceremonies, men's 100M final, and a "daily highlights" reel. The BBC had previously stated that it will offer coverage of the event on (up to) 24 live video streams at any given moment during the games. --- Russian reports say the Disney Channel is doing quite well in Russia averaging a daily audience share of 3.6% in January. The ratings are about 2.5xs that of Seven, the channel in which Disney bought a 49% stake, then rebranded as Disney Channel.

Promos: Verizon is sending a FiOS sub+1 to Madison Square Garden in NYC to watch the World Championship Boxing match between Sergio Martinez v. Matthew Macklin as part of a bilingual sweepstakes. Details are being hosted at Verizon's "bicultural" Facebook page.

People: FCC Chair Julius Genachowski will speak with ACA President & CEO Matt Polka at this year's ACA Summit 2012 on March 14. Details here. --- Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) promised to block FCC nominees Ajit Pai and Jessica Rosenworcel over the way the White House handled its conditional waiver with LightSquared. Now that the FCC all but squashed LightSquared's plans, all should be good with the nominees, right? Nope. Grassley is digging in. Read more. --- Myspace Entertainment hired former Fox Entertainment SVP Roger Mincheff as president.

--- Catch today's media market news in The Evening BRIDGE. •