12 Days of Multiplatform

Christmas Cheer? Well, There's Some ...

By Evie Haskell

 

‘Tis the season of lists and gifts and, of course, that one true love who just can’t stop giving.  In honor of the season and the song (purportedly written sometime in the 15th or 16th century, by the French or the English or the Swedes, for the purpose of nonsense rhyming or forbidden Catholic teaching ... the stories vary) we offer you this good cheer.

All together now (in the reverse order of the refrain):

On the twelfth day of Christmas, my true love gave to me ...

12 Chicken Littles ...

 

Better make that 12,000.  Every time we look up, another chicken splatters on the sidewalk beside us.  Not that there aren’t some sound reasons for this.  What with markets swooping, bankers tumbling and car companies begging ‘tis undeniably the season to be worried.

But come on folks!  We know it’s bad, and likely to get worse, but is that sufficient reason for a company like Viacom (securely in the black) to jettison 850 people?  Or for AT&T and Sony to put pink hatchets to a combined 28,000?

Is it reason enough for the media-led breast beating over Black Friday, despite the fact that shopping revenues actually edged up (albeit on great bargains)?  Is it sufficient for government pooh-bahs to launch round after round of bailouts?

Well, maybe so if your world view begins and ends at Wall Street.  But our personal Christmas wish is for a little less panic and a whole lot more thought on how we can all work together to minimize the pain and maximize the planning.

11 Shining Nets

 

On the merry side of Christmas (yes, Virginia, there is one) a number of programmers have seen a very successful year ... and they’re poised for a strong 2009 as well.

On the pay TV side, we think Showtime definitely gets the mistletoe.  The once-perennial No. 2 (for years it languished in HBO’s shadow) has glistened of late, scoring winners with Weeds, Dexter, Californication and The Tudors.  Adding well over 1 million new subs this year, Showtime is in its fifth consecutive year of growth in ‘08 and along with sister nets TMC and Flix is on track to boost its operating income by 20 percent (to $400 million) over last year.

Other winners in ’08 include a passel of so-called cable networks which are giving the big broadcast boys a run for their money.  (Think of prime time ratings leaders USA; The Family Channel; ESPN (“They own sports,” a friend of ours insists); TNT; Disney; Fox News; TBS; and Lifetime.

To that list, we’d add Comedy Central.  (We’d never have survived the election without Jon Stewart and Steven Colbert.)  And, of course, on the broadcast side the winner is CBS which closed the first 11 weeks of the 2008-09 season (through 12/07) with an average audience of 11.36 million, more than a million ahead of second-place ABC.

(Ratings data from Nielsen Media Research.)

10 Sites a-Leaping

 

Speaking of that bleak Black Friday, the bits and bytes were jumping.  According to comScore, online shopping for the first five days of December leapt 9 percent over the same period in 2007.

So who were the winners in the online jamboree?  To the left, we have the top 10 online retailers with their most recent rankings.

9 Stocks a-Sinking

 

Previous moralizing aside, this IS a recession.  And nowhere is that more obvious than the stock market.  Virtually every multiplatform stock is in the dumps but the nine closest to their bottoms (as of 12/09) are:  Amdocs, Crown Media, E.W. Scripps, EchoStar Corp, Hearst Argyle, Home Shopping Network, NDS, Scripps Nets Interactive and Sony.

8 Groups a-Giving

 

Sadly, philanthropy is one of the first things to go in bad economic times and the multiplatform biz is no different.  Still, we salute the many notable organizations which devote their time to boosting the dreams of others.  Among these are:  The Walter Kaitz Foundation, Cable Positive, The T. Howard Foundation, the NCTA, which hosted a fabulous schoolyard rebuild at its show in New Orleans, the Emma Bowen Foundation, the Cable Center and The Will Rogers Institute.

Plus this year we give special notice to one programmer which has gone above and beyond in giving.  As noted by one New York-dwelling colleague, “Every year we hear about how there are people who need help.  We also hear about how people need to have more fun.  All of these things get especially noticeable during the holidays.  So here’s one network where the people really know how to have a good time while doing good:  The Sportsmen Channel.

“This year they partnered with the Safari Club International Foundation’s Sportsmen Against Hunger to launch a tour dedicated to feeding the less fortunate.  The tour started this past weekend in New York city and was a big success as Sportsmen Channel employees were there giving their time to help feed those who really need it.

“Also this year folks from the Sportsmen Channel got on stage in the Cable Positive show in Denver (oh la la, those men in dresses).  AND they gave out the CBFF (Cable Best Friends Forever ribbons) at CTAM."

7 Dreams a-Borning

 

Another dream of note is the brand new (ie barely in beta) beeTV, an Israeli-hatched technology which provides a “personalized channel” linking viewers to virtually all today’s platforms (IPTV, cable, satellite, mobile, Internet and DTT) and giving them a way to quickly find the programs to match their interests.  Watch for this dream to find test markets in the U.S. next year.

What other dreams to keep your eye on.  Ah, just off the top of our heads, there’s the new Hannover Fairs' Multiplatform Matrix event, putting the whole picture together this July in Los Angeles.  We have the cable guys’ Clear wireless play.  We’re also dreaming about the return of the credit markets, the return of car advertising and – will it ever happen? – real targeted ratings.

6 Models Soaring

 

The i-Everything company’s online traffic jumped by a fat 29 percent over the same period a year earlier with iPhones and iPods leading the charge.

Meanwhile, Amazon scored a 10 percent increase for the period.  Give some of the credit to Amazon’s popular digital book, the Kindle, which by early December was seriously backordered.

Other hot multiplatform properties include CBS, TiVo and the two big telco video plays.
Don’t laugh.  We know that both Verizon and AT&T are much mocked in the multiplatform biz but let’s face it folks:  As of the third quarter of this year they had franchises in 30+ DMAs and their sub numbers were steadily rising.

5 Trends a-Watching

 

Our true love wouldn’t be much good if he couldn’t give us some foresight into the next year.  So jumping out on the Christmas tree limb, here’s our outlook for 2009:

• Ad spending will continue to decline.  Gosh, ya think?  Forecasters from ZenithOptimedia say the global ad spend will dip slightly to $490 billion next year, down from $491 billion in ’08.  But worst hit will likely be the U.S. where ad spending is projected to fall by 6.2 percent.  Ouch.

• Interactive and targeted advertising will fail to gain much traction.  At least for next year.  That’s partly a function of the economy and partly due to the many hurdles still facing the dream of truly personalized ads.  Most notable are privacy concerns.  But the (by definition) limited reach of any new ad scheme will also hamper growth.

• Mobile everything will top the lists.  Just consider the popularity of the iPhone if you doubt this one ... and be on the lookout for new souped-up mobile computers aiming for an iPhone+ category.  Want more?  Take a look at the Kelsey Group’s projection that US mobile search advertising revs will grow to $1.4 billion in 2012 (up from $33.2 million in 2007).

• Business intelligence will rule the bottom line: This one ranked No. 1 in Gartners’  2008 CIO Survey and we think the sputtering economy is gonna make it even more important.

• The Philly-mandated “cable week” decree will match Robert Mugabe in popularity:  ALL cable functions MUST fit into one or the other of two week-long periods?  Back-to-back black tie dinners?  Award ceremonies squeezed into morning coffee breaks?  Non-stop breakfasts, lunches, coffees ... This in a business which has thrived on its networking?  And which, in the face of snarling competition and restive business partners, needs it more than ever?  Geeesh.

4 Ships a-Listing

 

Who’s taking on water at the end of 2008?  Even without the Chicken Littles, the multiplatform harbors are filled with madly bailing sailors.

One of the maddest (pun intended) is none other than media mega-mogul Sumner Redstone.  What with $1.6 billion in debt hovering, MTV ratings slipping, ads buys tumbling, and family feuding, the storied mogul already had to sell more than $200 million in non-voting Viacom and CBS stock.  Now he’s looking to shop some of his National Amusements’ 1,500 movie theaters.  Given the goodwill that Redstone has generated in the multiplatform biz, we doubt we’ll see any friendly bailouts.

Also on the listing side is the entire (well, now one company, a.k.a. Sirius/XM) satellite radio biz as the primary source of new subscribers (new cars) go unsold and tightening budgets keep radio listeners out of the aftermarket.  And it’s not that sat radio’s competitors are doing all that well either.  Embodied by the RIAA and its Gestapo-cloned tactics for “unlawful” listeners, the entire traditional music biz continues to take on water.  Most recently, a lawsuit against the association (which has fined allegedly illicit listeners as much as $150,000 per track) went public with a new Facebook group, pitting the power of social networking against the already beleaguered recording biz.

Also on our list of listing ships are virtually all traditional newspapers (duh), the wire telco dudes (millions of wirelines disappeared in the third quarter alone) and, sadly, traditional media’s shining reply to new media, Hulu.

That’s not to say that Hulu is going down, far from it, but this wunderkind of the NBC/News Corp. online video strategy is ending 2008 with more whimper than sizzle.

After taking in a reported $70 million since its launch last year, and basking in predictions that it would soon overtake YouTube in revenues, the web player was drubbed by NBC Jeff Zucker at the UBS media conference.  (“I don’t think it’s what we thought it would be,” he lamented.)

This isn’t to say that the TV-online play won’t get a second wind in ’09 but the economy sure ain’t cooperating.  Nor are cable ops who keep rolling out discount plans designed to keep viewers tied to their TVs.

3 Thoughts to Ponder

 

On the current “downsizing” mania:  Said Barry Diller of IAC at the Reuters Media Summit, “The idea of a company that’s earning money, not losing money, that’s not, let’s say industrially endangered, to have just cutbacks so they can earn another $12 million or $20 million or $40 million in a year where no one’s counting is really a horrible act when you think about it on every level.  First of all, it’s certainly not necessary.  It’s doing it at the worst time.  It’s throwing people out to a larger, what is inevitably a larger unemployment heap for frankly no good reason.”

On our current economic woes:  Said Dr. John Malone at a recent off-the-record Cable Center luncheon:  “Today’s economic problems are about 80 percent caused by the Bush administration’s mistakes.”  (And this guy is no liberal!)

On the nature of bundles:  From Sanford Bernstein multiplatform analyst Craig Moffett:  “The power of the bundle arises from the marginal costs of delivery ... in other words, it’s the network, stupid.  All the academic research on bundling indicates that bundles, in economics terms, have a negative utility, and that customers have to be “paid” for the disadvantage of taking them.” (The italics are Moffet’s.)

2 Technos Soaring

 

It was a very, very good year for some technologies as consumers gobbled up a digital smorgasbord of products and services.  Placed square under the mistletoe were the time-shifting duo of DVRs and VOD.  According to the gurus at MagnaInsights, DVRs held spots of honor in one out of every four TV households by the end of the third quarter.  By 2014, the group says DVRs will capture 52.3 million subscribers, or 44 percent of TV households.

And VOD?  Ah, the viewers love it and Magna pegs the reach of true video on demand (ie the kind offered by cable and telco providers) to hit 68.8 million households, or 57 percent of the U.S. TV pie by 2014.

And a Turkey in a Pear Tree

 

Now who could that be, up in the tree?

Who else but Le Martinete – a.k.a. Kevin Martin – a guy who, near as we could tell, never has figured out the difference between ideology and reality.  Excoriated by the House Commerce Committee, widely disliked by his fellow commissioners (“Don’t expect them to do him any favors,” a lawyer friend of ours says), regarded with a combination of disbelief and horror by the cable industry, Martin has made an unholy mess of the FCC.

Among his more notable “achievements”:

• Burying engineering reports critical of broadband over power lines;

• Reversing a decision that found Verizon guilty of violating Customer Propriety Network Information rules;

• Most recently, trying to rig a wireless spectrum auction to virtually guarantee that the licenses go to a favored company called M2Z.  The telecom upstart, the Wall Street Journal notes, just happened to pop up with a plan that precisely mirrors Martin’s requirement that the winning bidder devote 25 percent of the spectrum to a free internet service which blocks adult content.

So where will Martin go after the FCC?

Maybe a gig as wardrobe consultant for Janet Jackson?•

MultiMAX

Multiplatform Meanderings ...

 

It is almost that time of year to wish for Glad Tidings and … well, anything good.  But the world is interfering a bit this year.  Too much bad news.

Nevertheless, may you and yours find happiness, peace and a better new year!

Meanwhile, is this “The Great Depression II”?  Or, is it “The Great Reckoning”?  I think it is the latter – and the right name for this mess.

Meanwhile, kudos to the “other” Federal Confusion Commissioners who prevailed upon our resident alien, Chairman Kevin Martian, to once again back off and cancel a meeting … this time, in the Christmas spirit, ahead of time instead of at 4 p.m. on the scheduled day.

Meanwhile, think the NFL and ESPN are playing nice as partners?   Or, is there a reason (that maybe Steve Bornstein had a hand in?) that the Cleveland Browns played three different times on Monday Night Football on ESPN?  Again Monday night the 15th … I’ll bet George Bodenheimer either gets a much better series of match-ups next year and/or gets the NFL Network, too!

Meanwhile, be sure to catch writer Jack Gage’s “Mixed Messages” in the 12/22 edition of Forbes … he takes a look at media company investment prospects and touts S&P analyst Tuna Amobi’s way of looking at the operating companies.  Tuna says “look at price per subscriber.”  Advantages, he thinks, include less volatility than profit numbers and, besides, that’s how acquirers look at things.

Meanwhile, the same issue likes Bob Johnson’s art tastes (but doesn’t mention his newest network initiative) and Paul Allen’s discovery that running an NBA team like a business works better than as a fan … and he’s doing the same thing (a little more slowly) with his cable company, too.

Meanwhile, it seems the country might be sliding back 150 or so years to back when the other skinny guy with the golden words was in the White House … here we are still with the North vs. the South.  The demise of the auto bailout is just the latest in a long line of geographical disagreements, outlooks and philosophies.  Wonder what’s next?

Gamers Quash Christmas!

 

It’s official:  The gamers have gamed their way on to every Christmas list leaving lingerie makers, sweater sellers and even fruitcake vendors out in the cold.

How big are the ever bigger games?  According to researchers at NDP, U.S. video game sales soared 10 percent in November and 22 percent for year to date.  Not only that but T-Mobile just launched a new ad-funded mobile games service in the U.K.; Screen Digest says global ad-funded mobile game downloads will grow from 26.8m in 2008 to 36.9m in 2009; and – scariest of all – Endgadget says that Apple’s John Geleynse is referring to the iPhone a “gaming console.”

Is it the end of entertainment as we know it?  Just press the button and ...

Three Tech Words to Know:  From slang watchers in the U.K., who claim that London is the birth place of all the really hip (yeah, sorry) slang words come the following examples of kid-speak:


A tip of the hat to the BBC for enlightening the 404 among us.  

Oooooo-O-Ooooo!  It’s back to your brain, gang, as those slick scientists in Japan have now created a new brain analysis technology capable of taking images from a person’s mind and displaying them on a computer monitor.  Researchers from ATR Computational Neuroscience Laboratories reconstructed images by analyzing changes in cerebral blood flow.  For the moment the images are only in black-and-white.  But in the future, Dr. Kang Cheng, a researcher from the RIKEN Brain Science Institute, told PinkTentacle.com, “Advances in this field of research may make it possible to read a person’s thoughts ...”  Or maybe they could imprint images or YouTube videos or games or .... Uh oh.•